Gold Breakout Signal v1
Breakouts with the big trend on gold H4. Simple rules, fixed TP/SL.
How it works
Straightforward rules: Buy when gold breaks the 20-bar H4 high inside a D1 uptrend, then set TP/SL from ATR.
- 246 trades in 20 years (about 1 a month), 67% wins, PF 1.62
- Almost no signals during the gold downtrend of 2014–2015
- Research found no edge with fixed TP/SL on H1. The edge comes from breakouts with the big trend on H4/D1.
Latest version v1
Updated 2026-10-04First version
- D1 uptrend (close above EMA20 and EMA200, EMA50 > EMA200)
- H4 closes above the 20-bar high for the first time in 12 bars
- SL −2.5 ATR · TP +2 ATR · one trade at a time
Which timeframe
The same rules were tested on every timeframe (table below): H4 is the best and most consistent · H2/H8 work but are weaker · H1 has no edge · D1 has a high PF but very few trades.
Why this many trades: Few trades because it needs the first breakout in 12 bars, inside a D1 uptrend, with one trade at a time. (1.02 trades/month)
Version history
The same rules on every timeframe
Gold Breakout v1 rules unchanged, run on each timeframe · OANDA XAUUSD 2006–2026 · $0.30/oz cost deducted · results in R
| TF | Trades | Per month | Win | PF | R/yr | Losing streak | PF 2006–15 | PF 2016–26 | Losing years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | 873 | 3.54 | 57.7% | 1.01 | 0.12 | 6 | 1.01 | 1 | 10 |
| H2 | 454 | 1.84 | 62.3% | 1.25 | 2.13 | 6 | 1.51 | 1.07 | 4 |
| H4 ⭐ | 240 | 0.97 | 67.1% | 1.57 | 2.22 | 4 | 1.59 | 1.55 | 4 |
| H8 | 139 | 0.56 | 65.5% | 1.48 | 1.13 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.28 | 6 |
| D1 | 60 | 0.24 | 68.3% | 1.7 | 0.65 | 3 | 2.23 | 1.46 | 8 |
Latest version results (v1)
Hypothetical 2006-04-06 – 2026-04-21 · Compounded, 1% risk per trade · Source: TradingView Strategy Tester · OANDA:XAUUSD H4 · 3 Bar Replay windows joined, 2006–2026